Capitol News

David Ortega, a food economist and chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University, provides insights into what consumers can expect at grocery stores this holiday season. As food prices continue to rise, particularly impacting working families, Ortega analyzes recent pricing trends and shares tips on managing holiday expenses.

Grocery inflation has slowed, with prices rising by 1.3% over the past year. However, overall costs remain more than 20% higher than four years ago. "The good news? Turkey prices are down," Ortega notes, attributing this to better preparation by producers for bird flu and increased holiday demand. Retail turkey prices have decreased by about 2%, while wholesale prices have dropped around 11%. Although ham remains expensive, it is not expected to surpass last year's high levels.

Fresh produce may offer some financial relief with anticipated lower prices on seasonal items like apples, cranberries, and potatoes. Conversely, some staples such as eggs are still impacted by bird flu issues, and ingredients for peas and stuffing might see slight price increases.

Ortega explains that the increase in Thanksgiving dinner costs over the past four years results from various factors affecting supply and demand. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and altered consumer habits, severe droughts affected crop yields, avian flu impacted turkey and egg prices, and global conflicts like Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised commodity costs. Meanwhile, some households spent more on food due to accumulated savings during the pandemic. Despite these challenges, major retailers are now offering appealing deals on holiday essentials.

Retailers are actively competing for shoppers' attention through promotions and loyalty programs aimed at keeping holiday meals affordable. For instance, Walmart offers an "Inflation-Free" Thanksgiving meal for eight people priced at approximately $56 or $7 per plate. Aldi provides a Thanksgiving meal basket for up to ten people at just under $5 per serving—one of its lowest-priced options in five years.

To save money during holiday shopping, Ortega suggests considering store brands as cost-effective alternatives to name brands without sacrificing quality. He also advises making a detailed shopping list to avoid impulse purchases and shopping early for nonperishables or freezer-friendly items to take advantage of sales before prices rise closer to the holidays.

Using grocery store loyalty programs or apps can unlock additional savings through personalized discounts. Hosting a potluck can also help manage expenses by sharing dishes among guests.