Capitol News

This year might become the hottest on record, surpassing previous temperature highs. Climate scientists find themselves puzzled as global temperatures increase faster than models have predicted. Wolfgang Bauer, a prominent researcher from Michigan State University, sheds light on potential explanations.

Bauer, a University Distinguished Professor in the physics and astronomy department at the Michigan State University's College of Natural Science, commented on current climate analysis tools. "We’ve talked about global warming and climate change for decades. Where do you think our planet stands? Are we at a tipping point?" Bauer said. He added, "I feel like holding up a sign that says, 'The end is near' and standing out in Times Square. I do think climate change can be reversed but, right now, it’s rapidly getting worse."

He observed, "For the last three years, each year was the warmest in the history of humankind. And what’s even more troubling is that all large supercomputer-based climate models under-predicted the warming."

Bauer explains that despite advancements in computer technology, predictions have not become significantly more accurate. "The other thing that’s worrisome to me is our reliance on climate models that haven’t delivered more precise predictions since the 1970s."

He suggests that the concept of reflectivity might be a missing component in current models. "We understand what our atmosphere does fairly well. As you inject all these many billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere each year, its absorption increases."

Bauer elaborates on the challenges of understanding reflectivity. "What’s not quite as well understood is the other side of that equation," he said. "The really bad news is we don’t quite understand all the minute details of this reflectivity."

He provides practical examples of how changes in land use impact reflectivity and temperature. "We know from these measurements that snow has a reflectivity rate of about 70%. For grass, that’s about 30%."

Bauer suggests that practical steps can mitigate climate change. "We need to look at our built environment and look for simple alternatives. We can make changes as basic as using concrete instead of asphalt, and making concrete that’s more reflective."

Finally, Bauer emphasizes the importance of transitioning to renewable energy. "Of course, the main thing is we still need to stop burning fossil fuels. That’s the most essential part that we cannot neglect."

Bauer's insights highlight the complexities of climate science and the potential for simple changes to mitigate global warming effects.