Capitol News

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to participate in the first of two scheduled presidential debates on June 27. This year's debates, scheduled earlier than usual and planned unconventionally, along with early ballot access in key states, have raised questions about their potential impact.

Dustin Carnahan, an associate professor at Michigan State University's College of Communication Arts and Sciences, specializes in how political information influences attitudes and behaviors. He discusses the significance of debates and the possible effects of this year's format.

Research indicates that presidential debates have minimal direct impact on vote choice. "Debate viewers tend to be among the most politically engaged," Carnahan explains, noting that these individuals usually have pre-determined opinions. However, debates can influence undecided voters through candidates' performances or significant gaffes.

Debates also command significant media attention before and after their occurrence, indirectly influencing public understanding of issues and candidates. While more knowledgeable voters gain more from viewing debates, less informed voters benefit from debate-related content in subsequent days.

Despite technological advances allowing people to avoid political content, presidential debates still attract substantial public attention. Nielsen ratings show that two of the three most-watched presidential debates occurred in 2016 (Trump vs. Clinton) and 2020 (Trump vs. Biden).

This campaign cycle's debates are unique due to the absence of the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD). The Republican National Committee withdrew from CPD in 2022, leading Biden and Trump campaigns to independently negotiate two debates for June 27 and September 10.

The early timing of this year's first debate is unprecedented since televised presidential debates began in 1960. The campaigns agreed on new debate rules such as muting microphones when it's not a candidate's turn to speak and holding the debate without a studio audience.

Carnahan suggests these changes may not significantly alter voter behavior compared to previous elections. Most voters already have strong opinions about both candidates, making shifts in opinion or learning less likely. Additionally, any post-debate effects are expected to fade quickly amid ongoing campaign communications.

However, significant gaffes during the debate could dominate news coverage and campaign messaging for longer periods due to the extended gap between the two debates this year.

Debates provide candidates a platform to present their cases directly but also risk spreading misinformation before fact-checkers can intervene. The format limits real-time fact-checking by moderators, potentially amplifying false claims through social media discourse.

Fact-checkers address specific claims post-debate, but research shows that audiences for fact-checking stories often do not overlap with those who watch the debate — particularly among partisan-minded voters who prefer news sources aligned with their views.