Capitol News

New research from Michigan State University (MSU) aims to address a significant issue in agricultural carbon markets: establishing an accurate baseline for measuring climate benefits. The study, led by Bruno Basso, focuses on the limitations of fixed baselines that fail to account for soil carbon changes and emissions under business-as-usual practices.

Basso, a John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor at MSU, emphasized the importance of accurate models for carbon credit generation. "The choice of baseline can dramatically influence carbon credit generation; if the model is inaccurate, too many or too few credits may be issued, calling market legitimacy into question," he said.

Published in Scientific Reports, the research examines 46 million hectares of cropland across the U.S. Midwest and offers a scalable framework for carbon market stakeholders. This approach supports regenerative agriculture practices such as cover cropping and no tillage, which help mitigate climate change by building soil organic carbon (SOC) and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon markets provide financial incentives for farmers to transition to regenerative practices by compensating them for verified climate benefits. However, these markets rely on reliable measurement systems that integrate modeling and field data.

To enhance accuracy, MSU scientists employed a multi-model ensemble (MME) framework using eight validated models across various locations in 12 Midwestern states. This approach reduces uncertainty in soil carbon predictions significantly compared to single models.

"This is a gamechanger for carbon markets," Basso stated. "It delivers a level of accuracy and scalability—from individual fields to entire regions—that current systems lack."

The study evaluates both SOC sequestration and nitrous oxide emissions to determine net climate impact. Tommaso Tadiello, co-author of the study, noted that this comprehensive assessment ensures that carbon credits represent true climate mitigation.

Supported by various organizations including the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development and U.S. Department of Energy’s Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, this research highlights the potential benefits of combining no-till with cover cropping practices.